How Smarter Forecasting Makes Grocery Promotions Work

Every grocer knows the drill: build the flyer, push the promos, hope for the lift.

But week after week, many promotions fail to deliver. Actually, most teams don’t know if their promotions are working or not.

Retail promotion optimization gives you full visibility into what promotions will do before they hit the shelves.

Promotion Forecasting

Promotion forecasting is the practice of predicting how a specific promotion will perform before it runs. It’s not just about guessing lift; it’s about understanding expected units sold, margin impact, and store-level variability, all tied to specific offer details like timing, depth, and promo type.

Let’s say you’re planning to run a “buy one, get one 50% off” deal on ketchup for two weeks this summer. With promotion forecasting, you can estimate: how many bottles of ketchup you’ll sell during the event, how much profit you’ll make after the discount, whether shoppers will buy more hot dogs and buns because of the deal, and whether sales of other ketchup brands or sizes might drop because of the promotion. Forecasting lets you fine tune the promotion before it runs. With this information, you can avoid overstocking, margin loss, or missed opportunities.

With ClearDemand’s promotion solution, forecasting becomes a proactive part of your promotion planning process. Here’s how it works:

1. Input the promotion: You enter key details (items, discount type, timing, store groups, goals)
2. Model the outcome: ClearDemand uses AI and historical data to simulate how the offer will perform. The solution factors in item-level demand, seasonality, promotional history, and cannibalization and halo across the basket.
3. See the forecast: You get a clear, store- and day-level forecast showing expected unit sales, margin and revenue impact, and potential risk areas (like overlap, stockouts, and dip risk).
4. Refine and improve: Compare multiple offers side-by-side and refine your flyer before it hits print. And, after the event, actuals are matched against the forecast so your team keeps learning.

In short, forecasting transforms promotions from guesswork to strategy.

How Our Grocery Customers Use Promotion Optimization

Grocers using ClearDemand’s promotion management solution are optimizing how they plan and execute promotions.

It starts with data. Instead of relying on static calendars or vendor-driven offers, our retail customers can simulate the performance of each promotion in advance, comparing offer types and measuring expected lift, margin, and cross-item efforts.

One top grocery retailer customer has used the promo tool to evaluate whether a price cut, multi-buy, or loyalty incentive would yield the best ROI – tailored by store and timing.

Another customer sees major impact to business by using promotion optimization during holiday periods – leveraging forecasting to align promotional timing, capture affinity, and manage post-event analysis.

Across the board, teams are using store- and day-level forecasts to cut waste, boost profitability, and bring clarity to promotional planning.

The Cost of the Wrong Promotion

Promotions are hard to get right. Without clear visibility, retailers often end up discounting for the wrong price or wrong promotional tactic, some retailers run more promotions than they need to, and many struggle to balance promotional frequency.

This results in promotions that underperform. When promotions underperform, it’s not just a missed opportunity. It’s:

• Lost margin
• Stockouts or overstocks
• Reduced vendor trust when trade funds don’t yield results
• Shaky shopper perception when value feels inconsistent

Promotion Solution Capabilities

ClearDemand’s promotion optimization gives grocers the functionality needed to plan promotions that match the market, drive sales, and protect margin. Here’s how:

Store- and Day-Level Forecasting

No more one-size-fits-all projections. Know what each offer will do at the store level, for every day it runs.

What-If Scenario Planning

Test out BOGO vs. $1 off. See what happens if you shift a deal to the weekend. Model outcomes before you commit.

Cross-Item and Halo Impact

Understand not just what moves on deal, but what follows. Promoting ketchup? Know the lift in buns, hot dogs, and soda.

Post-Event Analytics

Compare forecast vs. actual, so you can learn from every flyer and improve the next one.

Make your promotions purposeful!

The reality is, your weekly flyer doesn’t just represent your brand—it represents millions in spend, margin, and shopper trust. A few wrong offers can erode margin and inventory. The right ones build baskets, trips, and loyalty.

With ClearDemand, retailers are making promotions a revenue-driving strategy. Reach out if you’d like to see a demo.